Developing an Agent-Based Simulation System for Post-Earthquake Operations in Uncertainty Conditions: A Proposed Method for Collaboration among Agents

Agent-based modeling is a promising approach for developing simulation tools for natural hazards in different areas, such as during urban search and rescue (USAR) operations. The present study aimed to develop a dynamic agent-based simulation model in post-earthquake USAR operations using geospatial information system and multi agent systems (GIS and MASs, respectively). We also propose an approach for dynamic task allocation and establishing collaboration among agents based on contract net protocol (CNP) and interval-based Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods, which consider uncertainty in natural hazards information during agents’ decision-making. The decision-making weights were calculated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In order to implement the system, earthquake environment was simulated and the damage of the buildings and a number of injuries were calculated in Tehran’s District 3: 23%, 37%, 24% and 16% of buildings were in slight, moderate, extensive and completely vulnerable classes, respectively. The number of injured persons was calculated to be 17,238. Numerical results in 27 scenarios showed that the proposed method is more accurate than the CNP method in the terms of USAR operational time (at least 13% decrease) and the number of human fatalities (at least 9% decrease). In interval uncertainty analysis of our proposed simulated system, the lower and upper bounds of uncertain responses are evaluated. The overall results showed that considering uncertainty in task allocation can be a highly advantageous in the disaster environment. Such systems can be used to manage and prepare for natural hazards.